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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.