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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that exceed previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”